GSP Forecast Discussion
306
FXUS62 KGSP 312331
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
731 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooler high temperatures continue this weekend into
early next week as cold air damming lingers over the forecast
area. Temperatures slowly rebound through midweek ahead of the
next frontal system.
2. Rain chances return by the middle of next week as a low pressure
system approaches from the west.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cooler high temperatures continue this weekend into
early next week as cold air damming lingers over the forecast
area. Temperatures slowly rebound through midweek ahead of the
next frontal system.
Backdoor cold front has settled to our south, and the entire area
now finds itself wedged in with dry NE winds and a stable air mass.
This low-level dry air should keep the better moisture transport
to our south, while any forcing from the upper shortwave to our
west remains weak. As such, most of the deterministic and ensemble
guidance continues to show mostly dry conditions across our CWA
thru the the remainder of the weekend and early next week. Some
of the latest CAMs continue to spread light showers over our
area on Sunday and Monday, but much of this will likely fall as
virga owing to the dry surface wedge. Thus, precip should remain
isolated at best across our area through Tuesday. Any lingering
CAD/wedge should gradually erode through the middle of next week,
allowing temperatures to steadily warm back above normal.
Key message 2: Rain chances return by the middle of next week as a
low pressure system approaches from the west.
Upper ridging will amplify over the Southeast early next week, as
a broad/deep upper trof moves over the western CONUS. This upper
trof will approach our area by mid-week and eventually push the
upper ridge off the Atlantic Coast. As the upper trof approaches,
it will likely close off into a low and begin to lift NE. At the
sfc, a deepening cyclone will develop over the Central Plains,
while a secondary low forms over the Southern Plains and lower
half of the MS River Valley. An attendant cold front will gra-
dually move eastward and approach our area by early Wed. At the
same time, the surface high over the NE moves out over the NW
Atlantic, while SLY return flow brings increased moisture into
our area ahead of the frontal system. The overall timing/progres-
sion of the front differs amongst the guidance, but the bulk of
it indicates that we should get some precipitation by mid-week
with the best chances on Thursday. In addition, thunderstorms
and even severe weather can`t be ruled out with this setup as
deep layer flow will likely be enhanced. Most of the current
guidance shows minimal amounts of instability as the cold front
moves across the CWA Wed into Thurs. However, we are talking
about days 5 and 6, so confidence wrt to these details is low.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR on tap for the 00Z TAF period, with
steadily-increasing cloud cover across the area. Expect steady
6-10kt NE winds through the period, with perhaps some low-end
gusts across the Upstate on Sunday. Expect a gradual increase
in mid-level altocu through the period, starting out BKN tonight
and becoming OVC by tomorrow. By the very end of the period,
some sites may see an increase in low-VFR clouds, as moisture
finally arrives in the low levels.
Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR continue through Tuesday. Isolated
showers may develop, mainly in the Upstate, on Sunday evening.
Rain and associated restrictions are expected to return during the
middle of next week. With ample cloud cover expected this weekend
into much of next week, mountain valley fog should be limited.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
JPT/MPR
NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion
